Earth’s climate1 is changing. We are able to directly observe this as glaciers melt and disappear and Arctic sea ice declines. The Earth’s average temperature2 is steadily rising. Globally since 1880, 19 of the 20 warmest years have occurred since 2001. Aotearoa3 is following this trend. The country’s annual land-surface temperature has risen by an average of 1.1℃ since records began in 1909.
New Zealand’s annual temperature is rising
This graph shows the temperatures from decade to decade and year to year.
Graph by Ministry for the Environment, Stats NZ, and data providers and released under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that the current warming trend is extremely likely to be the result of human activity since the mid-20th century.
How do we know that climate change4 is the result of human activity? We know that the Earth’s climate has changed in the past. Change naturally happens – so why are humans responsible for this period of change? The simple answer is that we know, from various lines of evidence5, that humans are the source for almost all of the extra greenhouse gases6 accumulating in the atmosphere7.
Nature of science
Scientists collect data8 about current climate events through direct observation, such as daily weather9 measurements. They also collect data about past climate events through direct observation of greenhouse gases trapped in ice cores10.
The role of research and data
Scientists have been interested in the relationship between carbon dioxide11 and atmospheric temperature for more than a century. The link between fossil fuel12 emissions and warming was first proposed in 1896. This interest was ignited when systematic atmospheric CO2 measurements from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, showed that CO2 levels were steadily rising. Other monitoring stations, including Baring Head in New Zealand, confirmed this trend. Measurements from sites around the globe show that rises in CO2 levels have accelerated in recent years.
This gathering, analysing and interpreting of data is vital to understanding climate change and informing strategies to slow or mitigate13 its effects.
Taking on the challenge – Ministry for the Environment and Stats NZ
The New Zealand Ministry for the Environment states that climate change is the biggest environmental challenge of our time. The seriousness of this challenge is reflected by the efforts that government agencies, universities and others are investing in climate change research.
The Ministry for the Environment provides information about the status of the environment. It works with Stats NZ, New Zealand’s official data agency, to provide environmental reports – including Our atmosphere and climate 2020. The report outlines what is happening to our climate, why it is happening and how climate change is affecting the things we care about.
Information used in the environmental reports produced by the Ministry for the Environment and Stats NZ comes from many sources, including data collected and analysed by scientists in central government, regional councils and the following organisations.
Research institutes and centres
Several Crown research institutes14 have climate change research as part of their core business. For example, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) monitors the atmosphere, climate and the oceans. Manaaki Whenua15 – Landcare Research monitors land-based ecosystems16 and land use. AgResearch works to understand and mitigate the effects of greenhouse gas17 emissions from primary industries18 – alongside the New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre and the Pastoral Greenhouse Gas Research Consortium.
The New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute at Victoria University of Wellington engages in research to inform policy and contribute to public debates about climate change. Other universities in Aotearoa also conduct similar research.
National Science Challenges
The National Science Challenges are tackling the country’s biggest science-based challenges. The Deep South Challenge is most closely linked to climate change. Its aim is to understand the role of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean in determining our future climate and the potential impacts for our economy and natural resources. New Zealand’s Biological Heritage Challenge works to mitigate the effects of climate change and prevent biodiversity19 loss. One of the objectives of the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges Challenge is to investigate hazards associated with sea level rise and climate change.
Using data to make informed decisions
Climate science is incredibly complex. Experts from these organisations (and others) have been able to gather enormous amounts of data through direct observation such as decades of monitoring via weather stations and satellites. They’ve been able to observe past climates via natural timelines like ice cores and sediment cores. Climate models have helped them learn about the interactions between Earth’s land, water and atmospheric systems. Each of these pieces of evidence comes together to explain how humans contribute to climate change.
Activity ideas
Delve into data – these activities use visual representations and datasets from Our atmosphere and climate 2020:
Related content
Find out how the primary sector is collaborating to reduce climate change20.
Useful links
Find out how various agencies are taking up the challenge of climate change research.
- Ministry for the Environment
- NIWA
- Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research
- New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre
- The Deep South National Science Challenge
- New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute
- Pastoral Greenhouse Gas Research Consortium
The Ministry for the Environment and Stats NZ produce New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory – an annual report of all human-induced emissions and removals of greenhouse gases in Aotearoa. The inventory is one of the most important publicly available statistics for understanding how well New Zealand is performing.
Acknowledgement
This resource has been produced with the support of the Ministry for the Environment and Stats NZ. (c) Crown Copyright.
Our atmosphere and climate 2020
The Ministry for the Environment and Stats NZ produce New Zealand’s Environmental Reporting Series. Our atmosphere and climate 2020 focuses on climate change, with an overview of what is happening to our climate and how this affects many of the things we care about.
- climate: The weather conditions of an area averaged over a series of years, usually 30 or more.
- temperature: A measure of the degree of hotness or coldness of an object or substance. Temperature is measured with a thermometer calibrated in one or more temperature scales. Kelvin scale temperature is a measure of the average energy of the molecules of a body.
- Aotearoa: The Māori name for New Zealand, meaning Land of the Long White Cloud.
- climate change: The large-scale, long-term increase in the Earth’s average temperatures, with associated changes in weather patterns. There is significant scientific evidence that warming is due to increased quantities of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, with most of the rise due to human activity.
- evidence: Data, or information, used to prove or disprove something.
- greenhouse gases: A natural or manmade gas that traps heat in the Earth's atmosphere and contributes to the greenhouse effect. The main greenhouse gases are water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone and industrial gases such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). These gases in the Earth's atmosphere trap warmth from the Sun and make life possible. An overabundance of greenhouse gases leads to a rise in global temperatures – known as the greenhouse effect.
- atmosphere: 1. The layer of gas around the Earth. 2. (atm) A non-SI unit of pressure equivalent to 101.325 kPa.
- data: The unprocessed information we analyse to gain knowledge.
- weather: Daily or short-term conditions like temperature, cloud cover, precipitation and wind affecting a certain area.
- ice core: A core sample, typically removed from an ice sheet. Ice cores are long cylinders of ice recovered by drilling with a hollow bit. Ice cores contain information about past climates.
- carbon dioxide: CO2 is a colourless, odourless, incombustible gas. It is a product of cellular respiration and combustion and is an essential component in photosynthesis.
- fossil fuel: Materials such as coal, oil and natural gas formed from the fossilised remains of plants that lived many millions of years ago. Often burned as fuel – although this releases large amounts of CO2, which contributes to global warming. Fossil fuels are also not renewable – there is a limited amount.
- mitigate: To make less severe or to lessen the intensity. For example, mitigating climate change involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing ‘sinks’ (such as forests, oceans and soils) that store the gases.
- Crown Research Institutes: A group of science research businesses owned by the New Zealand government, sometimes referred to as CRIs.
- whenua: Land.
- ecosystem: An interacting system including the biological, physical, and chemical relationships between a community of organisms and the environment they live in.
- greenhouse gases: A natural or manmade gas that traps heat in the Earth's atmosphere and contributes to the greenhouse effect. The main greenhouse gases are water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone and industrial gases such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). These gases in the Earth's atmosphere trap warmth from the Sun and make life possible. An overabundance of greenhouse gases leads to a rise in global temperatures – known as the greenhouse effect.
- primary industry: This umbrella term refers to industries that are making direct use of natural resources. Primary industries in New Zealand include agriculture, horticulture, aquaculture, forestry and mining.
- biodiversity: The range of species found in a particular region. The more species that exist (the higher the biodiversity), the more likely it is that an ecosystem will survive episodes of change.
- climate change: The large-scale, long-term increase in the Earth’s average temperatures, with associated changes in weather patterns. There is significant scientific evidence that warming is due to increased quantities of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, with most of the rise due to human activity.
