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    • Rights: The University of Waikato
    Published 18 June 2008 Referencing Hub media
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    Dr Peyman Zawar-Reza, Geography Department at the University of Canterbury, uses modelling to predict the flow of particulates1 in the air over Christchurch. This video explains the development and use of computer modelling using past and present data2 to predict what the real world might be like in the future.

    Transcript

    DR PEYMAN ZAWAR-REZA
    Models give us predictive abilities, and that is really important because a lot of environmental problems right now need some sort of a prediction. If I want to see what a situation is at the moment I can just go and measure it. I can take a temperature3 sensor with me there, or some sort of device that measures air quality, and go and measure this in real time at the moment. Scientists also have also come up with a lot of really smart ways in trying to find out how the environment was in the past, for example, studying tree rings, by taking ice cores4 in Antarctica and analysing air bubbles. So we have the past and the present. How are we going to know how things happen in the future? Because it hasn't happened yet, obviously. That is where computer models come in because they can predict for us how things are going to evolve into the future. They are really good teaching tools because they are really dynamic5. Students can usually see movement, and they can study environments really effectively with the models. This is not something you can do with gathering data, for example, with a thermometer6 if you go outside and measure something. There is only a certain amount of the real world you can explain with measured data. After that, to complete your information, you need models. One of the neat things about using models, it allows you to test your hypothesis7 and your knowledge because you can just act like God with your model and change anything you like. You can remove the mountains in New Zealand and see what effect that has on the climate8. You can pump in artificial carbon dioxide9 into the atmosphere10, see what effect that will have on global warming, and things of that nature. So there's a … I guess there is a lot of switches that you can turn on and off with your model to try to define your problem and see what effects they have.

    Acknowledgments:
    Dr Katja Riedel, NIWA
    Cath Samson
    David Etheridge, CSIRO

    1. particulates: Extremely small solid particles suspended in a gas or liquid, for example, soot or dust suspended in the air.
    2. data: The unprocessed information we analyse to gain knowledge.
    3. temperature: A measure of the degree of hotness or coldness of an object or substance. Temperature is measured with a thermometer calibrated in one or more temperature scales. Kelvin scale temperature is a measure of the average energy of the molecules of a body.
    4. ice core: A core sample, typically removed from an ice sheet. Ice cores are long cylinders of ice recovered by drilling with a hollow bit. Ice cores contain information about past climates.
    5. dynamic: In science, a process or system characterised by constant change.
    6. thermometer: An instrument to measure temperature.
    7. hypothesis: A tentative explanation for a fact or observation that can be tested.
    8. climate: The weather conditions of an area averaged over a series of years, usually 30 or more.
    9. carbon dioxide: CO2 is a colourless, odourless, incombustible gas. It is a product of cellular respiration and combustion and is an essential component in photosynthesis.
    10. atmosphere: 1. The layer of gas around the Earth. 2. (atm) A non-SI unit of pressure equivalent to 101.325 kPa.

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    ARTICLE

    Associate Professor Peyman Zawar-Reza

    Position: Associate Professor, University of Canterbury. Field: Geography. Dr Peyman Zawar-Reza is aN Associate Professor in the Department of Geography at the University of Canterbury. He is ...

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      particulates

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      2. Extremely small solid particles suspended in a gas or liquid, for example, soot or dust suspended in the air.

      ice core

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      3. A core sample, typically removed from an ice sheet. Ice cores are long cylinders of ice recovered by drilling with a hollow bit. Ice cores contain information about past climates.

      hypothesis

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      4. A tentative explanation for a fact or observation that can be tested.

      atmosphere

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      5. 1. The layer of gas around the Earth.

      2. (atm) A non-SI unit of pressure equivalent to 101.325 kPa.

      data

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      6. The unprocessed information we analyse to gain knowledge.

      dynamic

    6. + Create new collection

      7. In science, a process or system characterised by constant change.

      climate

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      8. The weather conditions of an area averaged over a series of years, usually 30 or more.

      temperature

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      9. A measure of the degree of hotness or coldness of an object or substance. Temperature is measured with a thermometer calibrated in one or more temperature scales. Kelvin scale temperature is a measure of the average energy of the molecules of a body.

      thermometer

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      10. An instrument to measure temperature.

      carbon dioxide

    10. + Create new collection

      11. CO2 is a colourless, odourless, incombustible gas. It is a product of cellular respiration and combustion and is an essential component in photosynthesis.

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